Will I Always Win My Bets By Fading the Public?

Fading the public is a great winning strategy but alone it won't always guarantee victory. 

First off, you'll need to know which side the public is on by checking out the AcePerHead internal data, available only to Gambling911.com readers.

Once you see a lopsided play you'll want to continue to monitor.  Action could level off at some point as the game gets closer.

Next, you will want to determine if the books are trying to encourage action on a particular side.  Let's say the Chiefs are listed as a -5 home favorite against the Texans.  The public loves that number with around 75% backing KC.  You'd expect the oddsmakers to move that number to -5.5 in order to balance action out.  Instead the unthinkable happens.  The line drops from -5 to 4.5 and even -4.  Clearly the books are loving Houston's chances of covering, perhaps within a field goal. 

It's important to note that if KC is seeing 80% of the action and the oddsmakers move the number from -5 to -6.5, they are probably scared of the Chiefs covering. If the action is still greater than 70% for the Chiefs at -6.5 oddsmakers may be squeamish about moving to the dreaded 7.

Key Sampling

We decided to go back and look at the last three weeks of play in the NFL to determine any lopsided action that truly stood out right up until game time.   The green highlighted turned out to be good public fades.

Chiefs @ Raiders - Kansas City came into this one as a -9.5 road favorite with the line closing at -9. For us, this one seemed like a classic opinion but the Chiefs did end up covering.

Seahawks @ Cowboys - Dallas moved from -7 to -9.5 and this was clearly a reaction to the public loving Dallas.  They even closed getting around 70%.  But the public lost here.  Dallas won by 6 points.

Chargers @ Patriots - The Chargers line opening at -6 and dropping to -4 tells us the books believe New England would cover here.  That's because LA saw around 70% of the action.  LA would go on to win 6-0.

Lions @ Saints - This one dropped from Detroit -4.5 to -3.5. Action was 73% on the Lions.  They did end up winning with a 5-point cover.

Dolphins @ Commanders - Miami was seeing as much as 75% at game time, down from around 85%.  The line moved too, from -9.5 to -8.5. Miami won big.

Browns @ Rams - The line moved from Rams -4 to -3.5. The public loved the Rams too at around a 71% clip and LA did win.

Bengals @ Jaguars - This one went from Jacksonville -8.5 to -10.  The public backed the Jags at around a 75% clip.  Here they lost with Cincinnati winning outright.

Rams @ Ravens - The line moved between Ravens -7 and -7.5 with much of the action on Baltimore.  Though the Ravens won, LA covered with a 6 point loss.

Texans @ Jets - The public loved Houston at around 73% but New York pulled off the upset.  This line went from Texans -6 to -3, which clearly didn't make any sense.  The books were practically begging gamblers to bet on Houston. 

As you can see, simply betting against the public does not always work.  The strongest opinion we could see outside of the Chiefs @ Raiders game would have to be the Texans @ Jets and that one did work out fading the public.

You will definitely want to take into account other factors.  Fades tend to work best on marquee games where the line movement goes against the action coming in (i.e. Chiefs seeing 80% of the action but the line drops from -6 to -5). 

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com