Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz Fight Action Has 73 Percent of Early Bets on the Dog

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Aug/05/2023

Today is the big day - August 5, 2023.  Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz is expected to be the biggest fight of the year so far, even bigger than last week's Errol Spence vs. Terence Cawford.  That one resulted the highest trafficked day for Gambling911 since August 2017 and, while the traffic entering this weekend's fight the days leading up was much lower compared to last week, an hourly uptick was noticed this Saturday morning.

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73% of early bets are on Diaz to win tonight. Diaz is making his professional boxing debut and has 5 wins by KO/TKO throughout his 19-year MMA career.

On the other hand, Jake Paul is the-400 favorite and is 6-1 in boxing and is coming off a decision loss to Tommy Fury. The Total is set at 8.5 rounds.  Diaz pays out $300 for every $100 with a win.  The odds equate to an 80% implied probability that Paul will defeat Diaz.

A press conference on Thursday got completely out of hand, which will add to the excitement coming into this one perhaps.

Currently, the sportsbook is reporting that 77.4% of the moneyline handle is on Paul. Under 8.5 rounds is being backed at 56.1%.

Below are the rest of the odds and props for Diaz vs. Paul. If you are able to use this information, please consider citing the source.

 

Will the fight go the distance?

Yes +160     

No -200    

            

Jake Paul Knockdowns

Jake Paul does not get knocked down -350

Jake Paul gets knocked down +275

 

Nate Diaz Knockdowns

Nate Diaz gets knocked down -165

Nate Diaz does not get knocked down +135

 

Both Fighter Knockdowns

Both boxers do not get knocked down -750

Both boxers get knocked down +475

 

Either Fighter Knockdowns

Either boxer to get knocked down -230

No Knockdowns +190

 

Exact Method of Victory                      

Paul, Jake to win by TKO                                    +125

Paul, Jake to win by KO                                      +200

Paul, Jake to win by Unanimous Decision           +475

Diaz, Nate to win by TKO                                   +650

Paul, Jake to win by Split Decision                      +1100

Diaz, Nate to win by KO                                     +1200

Diaz, Nate to win by Unanimous Decision           +1200

Diaz, Nate to win by Split Decision                     +1800

Paul, Jake to win by Majority Decision                +2200

Paul, Jake to win by DQ                                     +2500

Diaz, Nate to win by DQ                                     +4000

Diaz, Nate to win by Majority Decision               +4000

                       

Method of Victory                   

Paul, Jake by KO, TKO or DQ                              -160

Paul, Jake by Decision or Technical Decision       +275

Diaz, Nate by KO, TKO or DQ                              +650

Diaz, Nate by Decision or Technical Decision      +700

Draw or Technical Draw                                    +1400

                       

Exact Outcome            

KO                                -115

TKO                              +175

Unanimous Decision     +425

Split Decision                +850

Majority Decision          +1400

DQ                               +2000

                       

Jake Paul - Round Betting                    

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 5                     +1000

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 6                     +1000

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 4                     +1100

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 7                     +1100

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 3                     +1200

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 8                     +1200

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 2                     +1400

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 9                     +1400

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 1                     +1600

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 10                   +1600

                       

Nate Diaz - Round Betting                    

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 4                    +3300

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 5                    +3300

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 6                    +3300

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 7                    +3300

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 8                    +3300

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 3                    +3500

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 9                    +3500

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 10                  +4000

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 2                    +4000

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 1                    +5000

                       

Round Group Betting               

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5 to 6                       +450

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 to 4                       +525

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 7 to 8                       +525

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 to 2                       +700

Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 9 to 10                     +700

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5 to 6                      +2000

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 7 to 8                      +2000

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 to 4                      +2200

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 9 to 10                    +2200

Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 to 2                      +3000

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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