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Free MLB Picks - August 12, 2023

Written by:

Don Shapiro

Published on:

Aug/12/2023

Yesterday was a brutal day with the UNDER on the Padres-Diamondbacks game that ended up way OVER. Everything about the starting pitching trends suggested this one would remain on pace for an UNDER right through to the 6th inning, but that was not to be for reasons we can't explain. We should start having our plays posted at the G911 Sports Hub starting today.

Andrew Heaney has righted the ship after getting dismantled by none other than the Washington Nationals. Since that time he has delivered a 2.33 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across his past five outings. One can probably say he is "due" for another bad outing however.

The Rangers though are 9-1 in their last ten games overall and face a Giants team that is winning at just a 40% clip of late.

The Giants career statistics vs. Heaney are 15 of 54 (.278).

Alex Cobb will be hungry for a win in this one. He hasn't gotten a victory in five starts. Cobb was hit hard in a no-decision against the Athletics on Sunday afternoon, giving up five runs on seven hits across his 5 1/3 innings of work.

Prior to their last two starts, Texas had scored five or more runs in their prior six games. It's interesting to note that they have not permitted more than 3 runs in nine of their last ten and San Francisco has only scored more than four runs in three of their last ten games.

Philadelphia Phillies career statistics vs. Pablo Lopez are just .220 (18 for 82 with three home runs). Two of those three homers came courtesy of Kyle Schwarber, who has 30 on the season thus far.

Lopez is 7-6 with a 3.81 ERA. July 15 was his last bad performance.

The Phillies start Taijuan Walker and they've been way hotter than Minnesota of late, winning eight of their last ten games.

Seattle has won eight straight games and faces off against the AL East division leader Baltimore. They will face an Orioles starter in Cole Irvin who is 1-3 with a 5.44 ERA.

He's 15 for 44 against these Mariners with three home runs given up by Eugenio Suarez, who has 16 on the season.

George Kirby (10-8, 3.32) has allowed 15 hits off of 50 at bats (.300) off these Orioles. Anthony Santander is 4 for 9 with two home runs against him. Kirby is coming off a win against the Angels.

Both Seattle and Baltimore have 5 or more runs in six of their last ten games overall. The Orioles have allowed 7 or more in three of their last four games while the Mariners have permitted no more than 3 runs in eight of their last ten.

The Mariners have one of the top five bullpens of late and Baltimore's is not bad either.

Five of the last six games in the Angels-Astros series have gone OVER the current total of 9.5. The Angels might not be scoring much but they've allowed five or more runs in 7 of their last ten games. Houston has scored 7 or more runs in five of their last seven games.

J.P. France owns a 2.25 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 11 appearances (10 starts) and has victories in four straight games. The line has dropped so much on the Astros that we see "sucker" written all over it.

While the sampling is small at 33, France has permitted 11 hits by the Angels current roster including two of six by Shohei Ohtani, though no home runs.

Tyler Anderson starts for the Angels. He is 5-3 with a 4.92 ERA. Anderson pitched well in a losing effort against the Mariners on Saturday night, giving up two runs on two hits over five frames.

His last bad game was against the Astros on July 16 where he lasted just three innings in a no-decision, giving up one run on five hits and two walks. The game before that Anderson permitted four runs versus the Dodgers.

The Astros career statistics vs. Anderson are 21 for 58 (.362). Alex Bregman has two home runs off of him.

Rich Hill was clobbered in his Padres’ debut on Sunday night, giving up six runs on four hits over three innings in a loss to the Dodgers.

But he has a shot at redemption against a Diamondbacks team that has not won in their last nine games and are 2-8 against the Padres.

The sampling is relatively small but Hill has allowed 9 hits on 40 at bats (.225) versus the current Diamondbacks roster.

Zac Gallen is the better pitcher here on paper with his 11-5 record and 3.37 ERA. Padres batters are 28 for 120 at bats (.239) against him.

We're back to square one it seems. Gallen hasn't had a win over his last five starts despite tossing seven innings of two-run ball and striking out eight Sunday against the Twins. It's tough to see San Diego accumulate many runs against Gallen and we have a total of 9 to work with.

Of course San Diego does have one of the worst bullpens. Yesterday was the first time Arizona scored more than four runs over their last ten.

Blue Jays Chris Bassitt (11-6, 3.87 ERA) has held the Cubs current roster to 6 hits in 30 at bats (.200). One of the two homers came courtesy of Dansby Swanson, who has 17 on the season but is just 1 for 7 against Bassitt. He is coming off a win versus the Red Sox after giving up four runs in his prior start.

Justin Steele (13-3, 2.68 ERA) starts for Chicago. Steele got a win over the Braves on Sunday after allowing four runs — three earned — in 5 1/3 innings. He surrendered five before that in another victory.

Toronto has scored 4 or fewer runs in seven of their last ten games.

The Cubs currently have one of the worst bullpens. Toronto right now has the second best.

Take the Blue Jays here -110 (Caesars Sportsbook).