Stanford vs. USC Betting Line at Cardinal -3
Carrie Stroup here with your Stanford vs. USC betting line where the Cardinal was listed as a -4.5 point favorite. Be sure to claim your Free $100 bet here.
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Stanford -4.5 & 46.5
Opening Line & Total: Cardinal -3 & 46.5
After struggling early in conference play, USC has a chance to send a message to the rest of the conference when it hosts red-hot No. 5 Stanford on Saturday night.
Although the Cardinal have beaten the Trojans four straight times, the past three wins have been by only 2, 8 and 7 points. This includes a 56-48 triple overtime thriller the last time the Pac-12 foes met in L.A. in 2011. This season has the chance to be another close one, because USC has turned things around under interim coach Ed Orgeron, going 4-1 (SU, and ATS), with the lone loss coming to Notre Dame. The resurgence has also been sparked by sophomore QB Cody Kessler who has 6 TD passes and just 2 INT since Orgeron took over for Lane Kiffin. But Kessler will face his most difficult test Saturday as he goes against a Stanford defense that shut out Oregon for the first three quarters of last week's game. The Cardinal defense has been terrific this season, allowing just 19.4 PPG, which ranks 18th in the country. Stanford allows the short passes over the middle, forcing teams to have to go the entire field to score. The Cardinal, who are riding a three-game win streak (SU and ATS) are a tough team to stop once they get hot, going 21-7 ATS (75%) after an SU win over the past three seasons, and 16-5 ATS (76%) after 2+ straight wins in this same timeframe. But since 1992, USC is 17-4 ATS (81%) at home after 2+ consecutive ATS victories, and 10-2 ATS (83%) at home coming off a road blowout win of 28+ points.
While the defense gets a lot of the talk for Stanford, it was the offense, namely the rushing attack, that played a key role in not allowing the Oregon offense to get rolling in last week's 26-20 upset. RB Tyler Gaffney carried the ball 45 times in the game for 157 yards and one touchdown. While the 3.5 yards per carry was not extremely high, the Cardinal lined up in a strong power formation and just wore the Ducks down. With Gaffney running the ball so effectively, it makes the play-action fake very difficult to stop for the Cardinal. Junior WR Ty Montgomery has the ability to get behind the defense with his blazing speed, and has developed a solid rapport with quarterback Kevin Hogan (1,596 pass yards, 8.4 YPA, 13 TD, 5 INT). Although Montgomery hasn't caught a TD pass in four straight games, Hogan does have the ability to get out on the perimeter and allow his receivers more time to get open, setting up the big plays. If the offense is able to move the football against the Trojans, then Stanford will be in good shape, as the defense will look to make the sophomore quarterback’s night miserable. Junior safety Jordan Richards has three interceptions on the season, including a 30-yard touchdown against Washington State. Look for Richards to play a lot of deep coverage to prevent USC star WR Marqise Lee from getting deep. If Lee is able to get behind the defense, he's just too fast to catch up with.
QB Cody Kessler struggled to get into a rhythm passing the ball early in the season, but has gotten more comfortable with the offense the past couple of weeks, evidenced by his 81.6% completion rate. In the victory over California last weekend, he had a great game, completing 14-of-17 passes for 170 yards and two touchdowns. Junior WR Marqise Lee (38 catches, 521 yards, 2 TD) has not come close to duplicating his 1,721 yards and 14 TD catches as a sophomore, but he is still one of the most talented receivers in all of the country. He is able to go over the middle and make the tough catch, but also has the speed and elusiveness to take it the distance on every single play. The emergence of sophomore RB Tre Madden has also helped the USC offense get rolling, as he has rushed for 671 yards (5.2 YPC) and three touchdowns this season. At 220 pounds, he is a powerful back that also has the ability to run by defenders. The Trojans did not have an offensive identity early in the year, but with Madden running the ball like he has, it has opened up the entire offense. The defense, which was thought to be the weak point entering the season, has been terrific. The Trojans rank 19th in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 19.6 points per game. Junior safety Dion Bailey has been great all year, intercepting three passes to go along with 46 tackles. Like Richards of Stanford, he will be counted upon to not let the receiver behind him, as Montgomery has similar abilities to Lee.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
