Spread on the USC vs. Colorado Game
Carrie Stroup here with your spread on the USC vs. Colorado game. Sportsbook.ag Line: USC -16.5, Total: 61.5
USC TROJANS (6-3) at COLORADO BUFFALOES (4-6)
Red-hot USC goes for a fourth straight win on Friday night when it visits struggling Colorado.
The Trojans (5-4 ATS) have scored 107 points (35.7 PPG) during their three-game win streak and are coming off a 38-30 victory over Arizona last week. The Buffaloes (3-6-1 ATS) have only one win since the start of October, going 1-5 during this stretch, and are coming off a 42-10 blowout loss at home to Stanford.
These schools have met four times as Pac-12 combatants and USC has coasted to easy victories each time, beating Colorado 42-17, 50-6, 47-29 and 56-28 last year. The most telling betting trends for this contest are both negative, as the Trojans are 0-6 ATS after a 3-1 SU stretch in the past two seasons, while the Buffaloes are 39-63 ATS versus good teams (10+ PPG) since 1992.
At this point in the season, injuries tend to pile up, and USC has RB Tre Madden doubtful with a knee injury while DB Leon McQuay III (knee) is questionable. For Colorado, FS Ryan Moeller (concussion) is doubtful for Friday night while five others are questionable -- RB Michael Adkins II (hamstring), WR Shay Fields (ankle), WR Jay MacIntyre (concussion), OL Gerrad Kough (concussion) and LB Ryan Severson (ankle).
USC has compiled a hefty 37.4 PPG on 480 total YPG this season despite having an average possession time of only 28:43. The team much prefers to throw the football with 305 YPG on 9.2 YPA, but is also adept at gaining yards on the ground with 175 rushing YPG on 4.7 YPC.
Although RB Tre Madden (418 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 5 TD) is unlikely to play on Friday, the Trojans have two other capable backs in RB Ronald Jones II (710 rush yds, 8.0 YPC, 6 TD) and Justin Davis (420 rush yds, 4.9 YPC, 5 TD). The freshman Jones is coming off a career-high 117 yards on just 19 carries (9.3 YPC) and two touchdowns (1 rush, 1 receiving) against Arizona, which was his sixth game of 70+ rushing yards this season.
However, the star of this team is clearly senior QB Cody Kessler, who has thrown for 2,511 yards on 8.9 YPA with 20 TD and 5 INT. Kessler has not thrown a pick in any of his team's three straight wins, and is coming off a strong game against Arizona where he threw for 243 yards and 2 TD. But those stats are nothing compared to what Kessler posted against the Buffaloes last season when he set a school record with 7 TD passes on 19-of-26 completions for 319 yards (12.3 YPA) and no interceptions.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster had 104 receiving yards and a touchdown in that rout, and he is enjoying a sensational sophomore campaign with 1,094 yards (18.2 avg) and 9 TD. His 138 receiving yards last week was the sixth time in 2015 that he eclipsed the 100-yard mark.
Defensively, the Trojans have been pretty strong, allowing only 22.6 PPG on 397 total YPG (5.5 yards per play). The run-stop unit is holding teams to 142 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC, but the secondary has been susceptible at times, giving up 254 passing YPG on 7.1 YPA. However, USC's ability to force turnovers has been powerful in stopping drives, as the team has produced 14 takeaways over the past six games. With the Buffaloes committing multiple turnovers in four of the past six weeks, mistakes will go a long way in determining Friday's winner.
Colorado has scored a solid 27.9 PPG on 425 total YPG this season, and those numbers have been even better at home (32.2 PPG, 440 total YPG). Balance has been the key for this offense that has thrown for 239 YPG on 6.7 YPA and run for 185 YPG on 4.2 YPC.
Junior QB Sefo Liufau threw 28 TD last season, but has just nine touchdown tosses this year. Although his interceptions have dropped from 15 a year ago to just six this season, Liufau has been highly erratic during the past two games with 0 TD and 3 INT. He also struggled at USC last season when he threw for only 143 yards on 35 attempts (4.1 YPA) with 2 TD and 2 INT.
If Liufau can't get back on track, more pressure will be put on top RB Phillip Lindsay (503 rush yds, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD) to produce. Lindsay rushed for 91 yards on 23 carries (4.0 YPC) on Oct. 17, but has gained only 89 yards on 20 totes (4.5 YPC) in the past three weeks. But Lindsay did run well against the Trojans last year with 55 yards on 10 carries (5.5 YPC).
The Colorado defense has let this team down all season, surrendering 28.3 PPG on 428 total YPG overall, including 36.2 PPG and 486 total YPG in Pac-12 play. The run defense has been particularly generous, surrendering 209 YPG on 5.2 YPC, but the pass defense hasn't been all that stingy either with 223 passing YPG on 6.7 YPA. Forcing turnovers is a must for this defense that has multiple takeaways in six different contests this season, but that's easier said than done, as USC has committed only one turnover in the past three games combined.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
