California vs. UCLA Betting Line
The California vs. UCLA betting line was coming in at UCLA -3.5, Total: 69
CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (5-1) at UCLA BRUINS (4-2)
No. 20 California looks to stay in contention for the Pac-12 conference crown when it visits slumping UCLA on Thursday night.
The Golden Bears lost their first game of the season last time out (30-24 at Utah), but are 2-1 in Pac-12 play and still have a shot to win the North division with only Stanford (4-0 in Pac-12) to catch. The Bruins have dropped two straight conference games to Arizona State and Stanford by a combined score of 94 to 58, and cannot afford any more losses if they want to overtake Utah for the Pac-12 South title.
California is 4-2 ATS overall and 2-1 ATS on the road this season, while UCLA is 2-3-1 ATS overall, including a winless 0-2-1 ATS at home. All eight matchups in this series from 2006 to 2013 were decided by at least nine points with an average margin of 20.1 PPG, but last year's game was a 36-34 nail-biter road win for the Bruins.
The Golden Bears have two big trends in their favor with a 7-0 ATS mark as a road underdog in the past two seasons and their opponent's 0-6 ATS record in October games in this same timeframe. But UCLA is 12-3 ATS at home in projected shootouts (63+ total) since 1992 and Sonny Dykes is 4-12 ATS after an SU loss as Cal's head coach.
While Dykes will field a full and healthy roster on Thursday, the Bruins lost two players to season-ending injuries last week -- WR Tyler Scott (knee) and OT Simon Goines (undisclosed) -- while OL Conor McDermott (knee) is doubtful and RB Nate Starks (head) and LB Deon Hollins (knee) are both questionable.<P>
California has averaged a hefty 40.2 PPG and 518 total YPG this season, but scored a season-low 24 points at Utah thanks in large part to six turnovers. Five of those were interceptions thrown by star QB Jared Goff, who had tossed only four picks combined in his first five games of 2015. Goff has totaled 1,970 passing yards (328 YPG) and 17 touchdowns this year with at least 2 TD in all six games and 300+ passing yards in five contests.
Goff kept his team in the game versus UCLA last year with 303 passing yards and 2 TD. The top receiver in that narrow loss was WR Kenny Lawler, who gained 88 yards and touchdown on just three receptions. Lawler is in the midst of a monster junior season in which he has 465 receiving yards and 8 TD, including three multi-touchdown efforts.
Although the Bears prefer to air it out, they have also shown the ability to run the football with 182 YPG on 4.5 YPC. The running back combination of 170-pound speedy RB Khalfani Muhammad (374 rush yds, 8.7 YPC, 1 TD) and 230-pound bruising RB Vic Enwere (290 rush yds, 4.6 YPC, 5 TD) has been difficult for opponents to handle.
Defensively, Cal hasn't been terrible in giving up 24.5 PPG and 395 total YPG. The run-stop unit has allowed a pedestrian 158 YPG on 4.1 YPC, but opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 236 YPG (7.2 YPA) on 58% completions. The Golden Bears have done a wonderful job in forcing mistakes though, racking up 21 takeaways through six contests. With the Bruins having three multi-turnovers games already this season, this could be a major problem on Thursday.
Despite the miscues, UCLA is still averaging a hefty 34.8 PPG and 463 total YPG on 6.2 yards per play. This is even more impressive when you consider its 25:57 time of possession overall and 22:27 at home. The Bruins have been efficient with 196 rushing YPG on 5.2 YPC and 266 passing YPG on 7.2 YPA.
Junior RB Paul Perkins, who has 681 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) and eight touchdowns, leads the way on the ground. Perkins ripped off his third 100-yard effort last week at Stanford, needing only 14 carries to pick up 104 yards (7.4 YPC) and a touchdown. He had an outstanding game at Cal last season too with 169 total yards (94 rushing, 75 receiving) and caught two touchdowns.
Freshman QB Josh Rosen (1,569 pass yds, 7.5 YPA, 12 TD, 7 INT) continues to improve and has thrown for at least 280 yards in each of the past three games, totaling 7 TD and only 3 INT. He loves targeting both senior WR Jordan Payton (486 rec yds, 4 TD) and junior WR Thomas Duarte (348 rec yds, 5 TD) who each had 47 receiving yards in the win at Berkeley last year.
The UCLA defense is giving up 27.7 PPG on 392 total YPG, but those numbers have jumped to a brutal 41.3 PPG and 458 total YPG in conference play. The run-stop unit is mostly to blame having been gashed for 216 YPG on 4.8 YPC while the passing defense is allowing only 176 YPG on 5.5 YPA and 53% completions. UCLA has helped itself greatly by forcing at least one turnover in all six games, totaling nine takeaways.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
