Noles vs. Cardinals Betting Line January 20
Carrie Stroup here with your Noles vs. Cardinals betting line for Wednesday night’s College Basketball action. Louisville -9.5, Total: 139
FLORIDA ST SEMINOLES (12-5) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (14-3)
No. 17 Louisville and Florida State meet for the second time as ACC foes, as the Seminoles look for revenge after getting beaten by the Cardinals at home last season.
81-59 was the score when it was all said and done in Tallahassee last season between Louisville and Florida State. Rick Pitino’s Cardinals finished with 20 assists and forced 21 turnovers (to just six Florida State assists) to punctuate the blowout (Louisville -5.5).
2016 has both the Seminoles and Cardinals featuring very different rosters than last season’s whitewash in the Donald L. Tucker Center. While Louisville still has the consistently annual look of a strong NCAA tournament team, Leonard Hamilton’s young Seminoles are making a push to be in the field of 68 as well.
Both squads are coming off victories: Louisville having last played almost a week ago (Jan. 14) in defeating Pittsburgh at home, 59-41 (Louisville -7) and Florida State collecting two big wins as an underdog last week (at NC State, 85-78 – FSU +2 and versus Virginia, 69-62 – FSU +3.5). The Florida State wins stopped the bleeding on an 0-3 ACC start.
On 3+ days rest, Louisville has been excellent (9-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) as they’ll have had five days to prepare for the Seminoles in Wednesday night’s matchup. While both teams feature offenses that score over 80 points per game, Louisville’s pace and production have slowed considerably against Power 5 teams and in conference play, as the Cardinals average just 67.1 PPG in those six contests. Louisville is 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) in those six games.
Florida State is 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS) in road games this season, which includes an overtime loss in Ames to now No. 9 Iowa. The Seminoles are 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) as road underdogs. Louisville is 1-5 ATS in their last six games but are 12-0 SU at home this season (5-3 ATS).
While the KFC Yum! Center has historically been a very tough place to play, Louisville did drop four ACC conference games at home last season. Florida State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games.
Florida State has retooled this season under Leonard Hamilton to have the scary kind of backcourt that would give Cardinals coach Rick Pitino fits. The Seminoles have kicked it up from the perimeter over their last two games, shooting 15-30 from three in wins over NC State and Virginia.
That said, will the incredible talented freshman duo of G Malik Beasley (17.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 49% FG) and G Dwayne Bacon (16.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 48% FG) be able to overcome the physically draining demand of playing against Louisville’s vaunted press? Bacon had a team-high 19 points in the big win over ranked Virginia, while Beasley has double-doubles in two of his last three ACC games.
It’s possible that this is the most physically talented backcourt that Louisville will play all season, as Florida State also boasts sophomore G Xavier Rathan-Mayes (12.1 PPG, 5.3 APG), however, the Seminoles get most of their buckets off of the dribble-drive and free throws (0.47 Assists/FGM, 301st NCAA), which can be a very dangerous way to play against a team that wants you to over dribble. Florida State commits 13.2 TO/G (204th NCAA) however, to their credit, opponents only steal it from the Seminoles at a 5.1 SPG clip (39th NCAA).
Unfortunately, though, Florida State’s assist-to-turnover ratio has been especially bad in their last three games (.69 A/TO compared with a season-long number of .99 A/TO). Only three Power 5 teams have a worse assist-to-turnover ratio than the Seminoles over their last three contests.
Louisville may be known for their press, and their Hall of Fame Coach, and their willingness to historically take lots of threes (not the case this season at 16.9 3PA/Game, 294th NCAA), but they wouldn’t be where they are right now without the stellar play of F Chinanu Onuaku (10.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.1 BPG).
Since his frontcourt counterpart Mathiang was lost for an extended period of time, Onuaku has been an all-out beast on the court. Averaging 11.6 PPG and 10.6 RPG in the seven games without Mathiang, Onuaku has managed to stay on the floor (only fouled out once) and has played 30+ minutes in Louisville’s past three victories, while garnering four straight double-doubles. This is a player who averaged 3.3 PPG in 18 MPG last season.
On the strength of Onuaku’s solid play, the Cardinals rank 12th in the nation in rebounding (42.4 RPG) and are especially effective on the offensive glass (13.4 ORPG, 6th NCAA).
In the backcourt, Pitino’s club features senior transfers G Damion Lee (16.7 PPG, 47% FG) and G Trey Lewis (12.6 PPG, 42% 3PT), but both players have struggled mightily once the calendar turned to 2016. Lee is only averaging 12.3 PPG on 37% FG in his last four games, while Lewis has been downright awful, shooting 17% FG/19% 3PT and averaging under six points per game in that span.
G Quentin Snider (9.8 PPG, 3.8 APG) is shooting the ball better after a rough start to the season and most recently had 21 points in a win at NC State. Snider is 6-10 from three over his past three games.
Given the nature of Florida State’s lineup, we could see freshman G Donovan Mitchell (7.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG) get some extra time on Wednesday night. The high-flying guard came into this season as highly ranked (if not higher in some publications) as Florida State’s electric freshman duo, and his length and athleticism bring something to the table that Lewis and Snider can’t offer.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
