California vs. Oregon Betting Line – January 6
Carrie Stroup here with your California vs. Oregon betting line for Wednesday night’s College Basketball. Oregon -3.5, Total: 142
CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (12-3) at OREGON DUCKS (11-3)
California looks to continue its success in Eugene as the team travels to face Pac-12 foe Oregon on Wednesday night.
Eugene, Oregon is supposed to be home of the Ducks – but you wouldn’t know it given California and Oregon’s recent history in Pac-12 play. 15-5 SU (12-7-1 ATS) over their past 20 meetings since 2006, California hasn’t lost a road game to Oregon since Jan. 2008 (6-0). What’s more, the Golden Bears are also a staggering 6-0 ATS in Eugene. California was a road favorite in three of those aforementioned six games, however, their most recent two wins in Eugene have found them as six-point underdogs in each game. The Golden Bears have found a way to win in low scoring (48-46, Feb. 2013) and high scoring (96-83, Jan. 2014) affairs in each of the last two games played in Eugene.
It isn’t all bad for coach Dana Altman’s Ducks. Going into last season’s lone matchup, Oregon was a loser of 12 straight to California (Oregon, 3-9 ATS in that span), however, the Ducks finally were able to defeat the Golden Bears, 80-69 (Oregon +2) last February.
Both squads will be coming off two day’s rest, California having opened up conference play with home wins over Colorado and Utah, respectively, while Oregon having dropped their first conference game at in-state rival, Oregon State.
With two day’s rest, the Golden Bears are 3-2 SU (3-2 ATS) while the Ducks are 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS). Oregon is 9-0 at home this season (10-2 ATS dating back to last season at home), while California is 1-7 SU in its last eight games away from home (2-5 ATS in their last seven). In the Golden Bears’ two true road games this year, they won at Wyoming 78-72 (failing to cover at -7.5) and lost at Virginia 63-62 (covering +12.5). The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven games between these two teams in Eugene.
At 64.3 PPG allowed, California has a stellar defense that stifles opponents to 36.9% FG (8th NCAA). The Golden Bears have been even better in their last three, holding opponents to 33.5% FG, and it should come as no surprise that six of the last seven California games have had a total of UNDER. The Golden Bears are the best team in the nation at defending two-point shots (37.2% FG), a stark improvement from the 45.6% 2-point FG they surrendered last season.
While coach Cuonzo Martin’s squad boasts tons of length on the perimeter, one can point to the addition of two stellar freshmen: F Ivan Rabb (12.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 64% FG, 1.5 BPG) and F Jaylen Brown (14.3 PPG, 6 RPG) as two guys who make an impact for Martin on both ends of the floor.
The 6-foot-11 Rabb has been a stalwart inside, as even with his lean 220-pound frame he was able to hold his own against Utah for 19 points and 10 rebounds in their win on Sunday (going head-to-head with probable NBA lottery pick, Jakob Poeltl).
Brown had a string of six straight double-figure games snapped in the win over Utah, but powered California to their first Pac-12 win with 17 points and 11 rebounds last Friday against Colorado.
The Golden Bears stellar rebounding (41.7 RPG, 19th NCAA) doesn’t just fall on Rabb and Brown, as do-everything senior G Tyrone Wallace grabs 5 rebounds per contest (in addition to his 15 PPG and 4.7 APG), but Wallace had pulled down 7 rebounds per game last season without Brown and Rabb. The influx of talent in Berkeley has meant a more efficient Wallace, who has curbed his attempts per game and seen his FG% rise from 42% to 46% this season.
G Jordan Matthews (13.7 PPG, 43% 3PT) provides the Golden Bears’ best threat from beyond the arc, and he’s been feeling it lately, averaging 18.5 PPG in his last four games, hitting 4.3 threes per game in that span (53% 3PT). Unlike Oregon, California would rather suffocate you with half-court defense than create a turnover, as the Bears rarely take the ball away (3.8 SPG, 346th NCAA).
After early-season success with a patchwork rotation, the Ducks fell flat at the worst possible time in their first game with a truly healthy roster, throwing up a 70-58 dud (Oregon -2) against their hated rivals in Corvallis. The Ducks shot 35.8% FG (28% 3PT) in the loss, while getting outworked on the glass by the Beavers (32 rebounds tied for a season-low).
Coach Altman is working veteran G Dylan Ennis, who averaged just under 10 points and 3.5 assists per game at Villanova last season, back into the rotation after missing most of non-conference play with injury. Solid minutes from Ennis will take a load off of freshman G Tyler Dorsey (14.6 PPG) who’s struggled recently in the Ducks’ last two games against D-1 competition (4-17 FG), and really isn’t a natural point guard.
F Dwayne Benjamin (8.9 PPG) was fantastic in last season’s matchup against the Golden Bears (17 points, 10 rebounds, 7-10 FG), but has been ice cold his last six games – failing to hit double figures in all of them. Benjamin hit rock bottom on Sunday night going 1-10 FG in the loss to the Beavers.
Oregon’s team strength, both offensively and defensively, lies in their frontcourt, as they (like California) play very good defense in the paint, while also having guys that like to attack the rim on offense. Leading an efficient attack that averages 75.5 PPG (1.09 points per poss, 45th NCAA) is sophomore F Dillon Brooks (16 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 47% FG). The Canadian forward is very adept at using his body to make all sorts of tough shots in traffic and will also post-up smaller players. Brooks is money from the charity stripe at 82.5% FT.
Senior F Elgin Cook (13.5 PPG) registered 17 points last season against the Golden Bears, but he’s also been feast-or-famine this season, lately failing to come up big against Power Five opponents and not using his trademark aggressiveness and athleticism (15 points versus Alabama and Oregon State combined, 0 FTA).
Oregon gets their hands on shots and passes, alike (5.9 BPG, 10th NCAA; 7.9 SPG, 39th NCAA), which leads to a very solid scoring defense (66.2 PPG allowed, 60th NCAA). Both F Chris Boucher (11.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.1 BPG) and F Jordan Bell (8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) are the main culprits for teams having a tough time scoring inside, while Bell’s 1.8 SPG lead the team and place him amongst five Ducks who pilfer more than one steal per game.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.om Senior Reporter
