Arizona vs. UCLA Betting Line – January 7
Carrie Stroup here with your Arizona vs. UCLA betting line for January 7 Arizona -3, Total: 149.5
ARIZONA WILDCATS (13-1) at UCLA BRUINS (9-6)
UCLA is in desperate search of a home win to avoid falling to 0-3 in Pac-12 play as the team hosts No. 7 Arizona at Pauley Pavilion on Thursday night.
UCLA faces a crossroads in their season on Thursday night, as Coach Steve Alford’s team welcomes defending Pac-12 champion, No. 7 Arizona into Pauley Pavilion.
Thankfully, the Bruins can refer to big wins already over Kentucky and Gonzaga to buoy their hopes, but getting swept on the Washington road trip (at the Huskies and at Washington State) on Friday and Sunday – both games having UCLA as favorites – was a start that not many saw coming. Of course, UCLA had the tough task of coming back on one days rest after a draining 96-93 double-overtime loss at Washington, a game they probably should have lost earlier, if not for the heroics of coach Alford’s son, G Bryce Alford (17.3 PPG) hitting game-tying threes at the end of regulation and overtime. The tired Bruins then travelled to Pullman and allowed the Cougars to shoot 55% FG, 45% 3PT, in the 85-78 loss. Both Bruins losses dropped them to 0-5 ATS in their last five and 4-11 ATS overall on the year.
UCLA is 6-1 at home this season (3-4 ATS), their lone home defeat coming at the hands of North Carolina, 89-76 (UCLA +8) on Dec. 19th.
Arizona comes off a big road win, turning back upstart in-state foe Arizona State, 94-82 (Arizona -3) in a game now more recognized for Sun Devils’ coach Bobby Hurley’s ejection. Coach Sean Miller, also quite the fiery competitor, has had a team at the head of the class in the Pac-12 since taking over in 2009, amassing an 80-29 record against conference foes and appearing in two straight Elite Eights.
Arizona’s recent betting trend pales in comparison to their home opponent, as the Wildcats are 7-1 ATS over their past eight games. Historically not known for their perimeter marksmanship under Miller, the Arizona faithful have been treated to 48.7% 3PT shooting over their past three games (6th NCAA in that span). As good as the Wildcats have been, playing in Pauley Pavilion is a daunting task for anyone, and Arizona’s 2-9 SU record at Pauley over the last 11 games reflects just that. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS at UCLA over the past five games and the total has gone UNDER in four of the last five games between these two teams at UCLA.
After missing the entire month of December, Arizona welcomed back C Kaleb Tarczewski (8.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG) to the fold in the win over Arizona State on Sunday. Tarczewski played 15 minutes, contributing 8 points and 5 rebounds.
Coach Miller must be thrilled to have his big man back, as Tarczewski – even though not a stat-sheet stuffer – provides needed size against Pac 12 foes, as the conference boasts many elite big men. Tarczewski will come in handy right away, battling against UCLA’s Tony Parker and Thomas Welsh. The big fella’s absence did allow Miller to develop import Dusan Ristic (8.4 PPG), as the 7-foot sophomore responded with 12.6 PPG on 71% FG in his last five games (all starts).
Allowing 63.3 PPG (22nd NCAA), Arizona has always been about defense-first under Miller (actually up from 59.7 PPG allowed last season). The Wildcats are especially stingy defending the perimeter, allowing only 29.7% 3PT (16th NCAA), which will come in handy when trying to slow down the younger Alford on the Bruins. However, Arizona has allowed 52.8% FG on two-pointers this season, which plays into UCLA’s hands with the aforementioned Parker and Welsh.
Rebounding is the main vehicle for defensive and offensive success for the Wildcats, as they boast a +12.4 rebounding margin (4th NCAA) and allow for minimal second chance looks at the hoop (6.1 offensive RPG allowed, 2nd NCAA). Regardless of roster composition, boxing out is something coach Miller stresses, as Arizona led the nation in this stat (offensive RPG allowed) with 5.7 last season.
F Ryan Anderson (15.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG) has been a revelation for Miller this season, coming over from Boston College. The 6-foot-9 senior has four straight double-doubles.
Emerging on offense as one of the most exciting players in the conference has been freshman G Allonzo Trier (14.1 PPG). Trier has now scored 8 straight in double-figures, after starting the season slowly off the bench. The 6-foot-6 guard has two straight 20-point efforts in the Bruins most recent two wins, going 14-16 from the stripe.
Also elevating his play as of late has been G Gabe York (13.7 PPG). York had 22 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists in the win over Arizona State on Sunday.
UCLA’s short rotation came back to haunt them last week after having to play four starters 35+ minutes in the double-overtime loss to Washington. Alford and G Isaac Hamilton (16.1 PPG) played 48 and 43 minutes respectively. Remarkably, Alford finished with 30 points in the loss, after missing his first 11 shots. The minutes didn’t effect Hamilton on offense, who rang up a season-high 27 points in the loss to the Cougars on Sunday evening, but Alford could only struggle to 2-10 FG and 10 points. More importantly, the Cougars tertiary scoring options on the perimeter had a field day with UCLA’s already-bad defense gone worse.
F Tony Parker (13.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG) predictably had a tough time corralling Cougars’ star big man Josh Hawkinson and puffed his way to 7 points, 6 rebounds and four fouls in just 26 minutes. Parker has only averaged 8 points per game over his last three contests.
Picking up the interior slack for Parker has been 7-foot sophomore F Thomas Welsh (13.3 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 59% FG), as Welsh has double-doubles in his last three games and is much more adept at staying out of foul trouble.
Freshman G Aaron Holiday (10.4 PPG, 3.2 APG) has earned the elder Alford’s trust, as he’s third on the team with 31 minutes per game, but he’s completely hit or miss with production. Holiday did score a career-high 15 points against the Cougars, taking 15 shots in the process.
Going up against Arizona’s elite defense, UCLA will have to clamp down as well, but that will be a tough task, given that their 76.5 PPG allowed (249th NCAA), is already up from 68.1 PPG allowed last season with the majority of the conference slate still to be played.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
